The formula is a simple one — we look at the total number of ninth graders this year, and four years later we look at home many of those ninth graders leave high school with a diploma.  We factor out transfers and those students who may have died.  Recognizing that high school is intended to be a four-year experience, the goal is a diploma in four years.  No exceptions.

What did Virginia find?  A statewide graduation rate of 81%.  Four in five Virginia ninth graders are graduating on time, according to the data coming out of VDE.  Seventy percent of Hispanic students are graduating on time; 70% of low-income students are graduating on time; and 73% of black students graduated on time.  The full story is today’s Washington Post — www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/08/AR2008100801674.html.  

(Personally, Eduflack’s own Falls Church City Schools boasted a 98% on-time graduation rate.  I just want to know who those 2% are.  I’d personally be shocked that there were two kids who failed to graduate FCC on time, let alone 2%.)

First things first.  The Commonwealth of Virginia is to be commended for adopting and enforcing the NGA graduation rate formula.  In today’s society, we know that a high school diploma is a non-negotiable.  It is hard to admit our K-12 system is failing some kids, and that 20% of ninth graders aren’t getting that diploma they need to contribute in 21st century society.  It is even harder not to make excuses, blaming record keeping, NCLB expectations, high-stakes testing, and the like.

But I can’t help wondering how accurate the number actually is.  It was only last fall that we heard the stories of dropout factories around the nation, and several of those so-called factories were found in the Old Dominion.  VDE says they expected an 80% grad rate, and they posted an 81% rate.  It’s gotta be nice to know your schools that well.  But we’ve seen the great variances in district-wide graduation numbers, with schools saying one thing and third-party researchers offering completely different numbers.  I want to believe my state and my VDE, but I’m also hoping that Jay Greene and the Manhattan Institute will weigh in here and “certify” these numbers.

Interestingly, the State of Maryland is still moving to adopt the NGA formula, boldly predicting to clock in at 85% on-time high school graduation.  Based on those dropout factory stories, though, Eduflack finds that awfully hard to believe.  And I find it harder to believe Maryland will outperform Virginia, but that’s just old collegiate rivalries talking, I suppose.

According to the Post, Bob Wise, president of the Alliance for Excellent Education, uses these numbers to talk about our national need to track student progress.  Certainly, on-time graduation rate data is one of the core pieces of information we need to hold our schools accountable and to measure our effectiveness.  States like Florida and North Carolina and Texas have already worked at adopting the NGA universal on-time high school graduation rate.  Here’s hoping that the rest of the states are soon to join them, giving us a national standard by which to measure high school graduation.